Is the middle class growing or shrinking?

What we mean by global middle class growth: definitions and data sources

How researchers define the middle class

Different organizations use income thresholds adjusted for purchasing power to define the middle class, and these choices shape headline estimates. A common approach measures middle-income households by real consumption or income per person in international dollars to reflect purchasing power parity and living costs.

According to Our World in Data, researchers frequently report ranges of income per day or per year that are adjusted with PPP to make comparisons across countries meaningful, and the World Bank uses related consumption thresholds in its poverty and shared prosperity work Our World in Data

Key datasets and why they differ

The main data sources readers encounter are Our World in Data, the World Bank’s Poverty and Shared Prosperity reports, and United Nations social analyses. Each source compiles household surveys and national accounts but can differ in threshold choices, country coverage, and how they treat informal income.

These methodological differences matter: one dataset may report a larger middle class because it uses a lower income threshold, another may show slower growth when it restricts the sample to countries with recent household surveys; users should check definitions when comparing figures World Bank report

Long-term growth: why the global middle class expanded in the early 21st century

Regional drivers of sustained expansion

The headline pattern of the early 21st century is clear: the global middle class increased markedly, largely because very large populations in East and South Asia moved into middle-income brackets as incomes rose. This regional shift is responsible for most of the net increase in the global middle class through the mid 2020s Our World in Data

Structural factors: GDP growth, urbanization, education

Sustained GDP growth in large economies, combined with rapid urban migration and rising education levels, created labor and consumption opportunities that raised household incomes. These structural changes tend to lift many people out of poverty and into middle-income categories over time.

Multilateral analyses emphasize that steady growth, better access to education, and urban job markets were central drivers of middle-class expansion, and OECD and World Bank work link these factors to rising middle-income households in several regions OECD analysis

Regional patterns and who was left behind

Asia as the majority of the middle class

Asia now contains the majority share of the worlds middle class after decades of rapid gains in large countries, particularly across East and South Asia. This concentration explains why global totals rose even as other regions lagged.

Recent compilations show that much of the numerical growth through 2024-2025 came from Asian economies, reflecting income gains in populous countries Our World in Data

By contrast, Sub-Saharan Africa continues to have a low and slowly growing share of middle-income households. Weak labor markets, lower urbanization rates, and limited fiscal space for social protection have contributed to slower expansion.

The United Nations and World Bank analyses both note that low-income regions faced greater difficulty expanding their middle classes and are more exposed to reversals after shocks UN World Social Report

Mixed cases: Latin America and Eastern Europe

Latin America and parts of Eastern Europe show mixed trends: some countries saw earlier gains in their middle-income populations but remain vulnerable to economic cycles and inequality. These mixed outcomes mean regional snapshots can differ from country-level experience.

World Bank reporting highlights that Latin American growth patterns have been uneven, with backsliding in some places after economic shocks World Bank report

Short-term setbacks since the COVID-19 pandemic and recent cost shocks

Evidence of slowed growth and backsliding

Several multilateral reports document that middle-class growth slowed and, in some places, reversed after the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2021-2023 period of high inflation and supply disruptions. Progress was not uniform, but the pandemic interrupted survey-based upward trends in many vulnerable countries World Bank report

Channels: income losses, inflation, weak labour markets

The mechanisms behind short-term setbacks are straightforward: pandemic-related income losses, inflation that eroded real purchasing power, and weak labor market recoveries reduced the number of households with secure middle-income consumption.

Analyses attribute much of the short-term vulnerability to these channels, and they note that fragile and low-income countries were especially at risk of backsliding after health and cost shocks UN World Social Report

What projections through 2025-2026 expect and the main risks to future growth

Baseline projections and uncertainty

Multilateral short-term projections through 2025-2026 generally expect continued expansion of the middle class but at a slower pace than the early 21st century. These projections are conditional on baseline economic scenarios and can change with macro shocks.

The World Banks near-term outlooks and related syntheses indicate slower baseline growth and stress the high sensitivity of projections to economic shocks and policy responses World Bank report

Risks: macro shocks, fiscal constraints, climate impacts

Key risks that could alter the trajectory include major macroeconomic shocks, constrained fiscal space for social protection, and climate-related events that hit livelihoods and food prices. Policymakers and analysts treat these as high-sensitivity factors when reading projections.

Public attitude and outlook syntheses also point to economic uncertainty and social risks that can amplify vulnerability among middle-income households Pew Research Center synthesis

How to evaluate claims about middle class growth: criteria and common mistakes

Practical checks for readers

When you see a headline claiming the middle class is growing or shrinking, check five things: the source, the income thresholds used, whether figures are PPP adjusted, the country or region covered, and the date of the underlying surveys or projections.

These checks help readers avoid misleading comparisons that arise from different definitions or from presenting nominal incomes without adjusting for purchasing power Our World in Data

Common misinterpretations to avoid

Avoid three common mistakes: treating nominal incomes as real gains, assuming one country result applies globally, and ignoring distributional change that can raise averages while leaving many households vulnerable.

Simple attribution language helps: use phrasing such as according to the World Bank or the UN reports when summarizing findings rather than asserting global absolutes World Bank report

Practical examples: country snapshots that illustrate the patterns

China and India: large-scale gains

China and India together drove much of the numeric rise in the global middle class because their large populations experienced sustained income growth and urbanization, moving millions into middle-income categories over two decades.

Our World in Data and related compilations show how population scale combined with rising incomes to alter global totals significantly Our World in Data

Brazil and parts of Latin America: mixed trends

Brazil and several Latin American countries expanded their middle-income populations in favorable periods but have also experienced contractions or stagnation after recessions and fiscal strains. This mixed picture highlights the region’s vulnerability to cycles.

World Bank reporting documents these uneven patterns and emphasizes the role of policy buffers in protecting middle-income households World Bank report

Nigeria and Sub-Saharan cases: slow growth

In Nigeria and similar Sub-Saharan examples, demographic growth and weak labor market dynamics mean the share of middle-income households remains low and rises slowly, despite occasional income gains in parts of the economy.

The UN and World Bank analyses note that these regions face structural headwinds that slow middle-class expansion and increase susceptibility to reversals UN World Social Report

Policy implications and what policymakers emphasise

Priority areas: inclusive growth and safety nets

The World Bank and the UN emphasize social protection measures and fiscal space as critical to middle-class stability in the near term World Bank report

Resilience building to avoid reversals

Building resilience means strengthening labor markets, diversifying incomes, and investing in climate adaptation and human capital so that shocks are less likely to push households back below middle-income thresholds.

Policy syntheses recommend resilience measures alongside inclusive growth to manage uncertainty and reduce the risk of backsliding Pew Research Center synthesis

Conclusion: a balanced answer  growing overall, but uneven and vulnerable

Key takeaways

The concise answer is that the global middle class grew substantially in the early 21st century, driven mainly by gains in East and South Asia, but progress has been uneven and some short-term reversals occurred after the pandemic according to multilateral datasets Our World in Data

Three brief takeaways: gains are regionally concentrated, middle-income households remain sensitive to macro and climate shocks, and short-term projections show continued but slower growth under baseline scenarios World Bank report