What are the top 5 states for murders? A practical guide to methods and sources

What the phrase “top 10 safest states in the united states” means for homicide rankings

When someone asks about the “top 10 safest states in the united states” in the context of murders, they usually mean which states have the lowest homicide or murder rates per 100,000 residents. That is a narrow, metric-based definition of safety and does not capture other dimensions such as property crime, traffic deaths, economic conditions, or emergency response capacity. For clarity, label lists that use this metric as a homicide or murder-rate ranking rather than a holistic safety score.

Deciding between a mortality-based and an offense-based ranking matters because the two systems count different events. The CDC compiles deaths recorded on death certificates, while law-enforcement systems record crimes reported to police. A ranking that uses death certificate counts is different in logic and timing from one based on police reports, so readers should be told which series and year are used.

For state-level mortality counts and final rates through 2022, the CDC’s national vital statistics are the standard source; they list deaths coded as homicides on death certificates and provide state rates adjusted to population denominators, as shown in CDC WONDER – Underlying Cause of Death CDC WONDER – Underlying Cause of Death

By contrast, the FBI publishes counts and rates for murder and nonnegligent manslaughter reported to law enforcement, with interactive state tables and provisional 2023 estimates available for more recent offense-based comparisons, as shown in the FBI Crime Data Explorer FBI Crime Data Explorer

Any headline that uses the phrase “top 10 safest states in the united states” should make the metric explicit in the headline or subhead, for example by including the source and year. This reduces the risk that readers interpret a single-rate ranking as a broader measure of public safety.

Key official data sources to use for state homicide rankings

Two authoritative series underpin state-level homicide comparisons. For mortality figures, CDC WONDER provides final state counts and rates through 2022 and is appropriate when the goal is to count deaths recorded on death certificates. Cite the CDC data when you use this series to make clear you are reporting mortality-based rankings, as reported by CDC WONDER – Underlying Cause of Death CDC WONDER – Underlying Cause of Death

For offense-based figures, the FBI Crime Data Explorer publishes state-level counts and rates for murder and nonnegligent manslaughter reported to police. The FBI also published provisional 2023 estimates that can be useful for timelier reporting, but those are preliminary and may change as jurisdictions report final numbers, according to the FBI Crime Data Explorer release notes FBI Crime Data Explorer

To convert counts into comparable rates across states you need population denominators from the U.S. Census Bureau. Use the same Census vintage for every state to avoid inconsistent denominators; the U.S. Census Bureau site explains the annual estimates used to compute per-capita rates U.S. Census Bureau population estimates

How to calculate state murder rates correctly

Use a simple formula and consistent population data to compute rates. The basic calculation is: (count / population) times 100,000. That yields the homicide or murder rate per 100,000 residents, which is the standard for comparing states of different sizes. State counts from either CDC or FBI must be paired with the same Census population vintage to ensure comparability.

Step 1: choose your series and year. If you use CDC final mortality data through 2022, note that explicitly. If you use FBI offense counts for 2023, label them provisional when applicable. The CDC series and its final-year scope are documented in CDC WONDER, which lists state-level death certificate counts and rates CDC WONDER – Underlying Cause of Death

Step 2: select the population denominator. Use U.S. Census Bureau annual estimates for the same year as the count or a consistent midyear estimate across all states; the Census guidance outlines the relevant population series U.S. Census Bureau population estimates

Step 3: compute the rate and, where appropriate, calculate a multi-year average. Small states may show large swings from one year to the next, so analysts commonly report three-year averages or include confidence intervals to reduce noise. The Bureau of Justice Statistics and NCHS publications discuss volatility and methods to stabilize rates BJS measurement guidance

A practical checklist for assembling a ‘top states’ list

1) Choose the data source and exact year. Pick CDC WONDER for mortality-based rankings or FBI CDE for offense-based rankings, and record whether the series is final or provisional. The CDC final series is the basis for mortality rankings through 2022 CDC WONDER – Underlying Cause of Death

2) Decide whether to rank by rate per 100,000 residents or by raw counts. For a “safest” label you should use rates, not counts, because raw counts favor larger states. Use Census population estimates as the denominator to compute rates consistently U.S. Census Bureau population estimates

3) Address volatility. For small-population states, apply a 3-year moving average or report confidence intervals instead of a single-year rank. Guidance on provisional and final mortality data explains why multi-year averages are common practice NCHS provisional and final data guidance

4) Prepare methods and source notes. Include the source name, year, whether counts or deaths are used, the Census denominator vintage, and whether data are provisional. Keep this checklist with any published list so readers can replicate your ranking.

How CDC and FBI rankings can differ and why that matters

CDC and FBI rankings can diverge because they record related but different events. The CDC tallies deaths registered on death certificates, classifying an underlying cause as homicide, while the FBI counts incidents of murder and nonnegligent manslaughter reported to police. The difference in counting pathways can change which states appear at the top or bottom of a list.

Administrative timing and classification choices also matter. Death certificates follow medical certification and coding rules, which affects final mortality counts, while police-reported crime counts depend on reporting practices, agency submission schedules, and investigative classification. When you explain a ranking, state these procedural differences and cite the relevant data series to make clear why two lists may not match. For example, compare CDC WONDER mortality files with FBI offense tables when you need context FBI Crime Data Explorer

Because the two series are not interchangeable, avoid asserting that a single list provides an absolute measure of safety. Instead, present the series used, explain its strengths and limits, and, if possible, show both mortality and offense-based rankings side by side.

Interpreting provisional FBI 2023 estimates and their limits

The FBI published provisional estimates for 2023 that showed notable year-over-year shifts at the national level. Provisional numbers are useful for more timely reporting, but they are subject to revision as jurisdictions submit final reports, so label them as provisional and treat state-level changes cautiously. The FBI’s release notes frame these figures as preliminary and updateable FBI preliminary estimates and release notes

For state-level reporting, provisional counts can change materially if a jurisdiction reports late or revises its classifications. When using provisional FBI data, state the provisional status in headlines and methods notes, and where possible compare provisional offense counts to the latest CDC mortality totals for additional context. For example, consult final mortality data at CDC WONDER deaths by underlying cause to provide context for provisional offense counts.

Provisional figures are most useful when they are clearly framed as early indicators rather than definitive rankings. If the goal is to make policy or comparative claims, prefer final-year CDC mortality statistics or explicitly present provisional FBI numbers as subject to revision.

Practical examples: how to present a defensible ‘top 5’ or ‘top 10’ list

Use neutral headline templates that include the data series and year, for example: “States with the lowest homicide rate per 100,000 residents, CDC WONDER final mortality data through 2022.” This wording makes the metric and source explicit and avoids implying a broader safety ranking.

When showing a table, include these columns: state, count, population, rate per 100,000, and source note. Add a methods footnote that states the source series, year, population vintage, and any averaging window. A clear methods note allows readers and journalists to verify your numbers independently by consulting primary data.

Prefer short explanatory captions rather than value-laden language. For example, use “Lowest homicide rate per 100,000 residents, CDC WONDER, 2022” rather than “Safest states.” That keeps reporting accurate and replicable and avoids overstating what a single metric can show.

Typical mistakes and pitfalls when ranking states by murder or homicide rate

A common error is publishing raw counts without adjusting for population. Raw counts privilege large states simply because more people typically means more incidents. For comparative “safest” claims, use rates per 100,000 residents so readers can see per-capita differences instead of absolute totals.

Another frequent mistake is mixing data vintages. For example, pairing a recent FBI count with an outdated Census denominator can distort per-capita rates. Always use a consistent population vintage across all states when computing rates and state that vintage in the methods note to avoid confusion U.S. Census Bureau population estimates

Finally, do not ignore volatility in small states. Single events can create large swings in rates for jurisdictions with small populations. Use moving averages, suppression thresholds, or confidence intervals when reporting rankings that include those states, and explain any exclusions in the methods note.

Scenario walk-through: building a ‘top 5 states for murders’ list step by step

Step A: select your source and time window. If you choose CDC final mortality data through 2022, you are ranking based on deaths recorded on death certificates; if you choose FBI provisional counts for 2023, you are ranking incidents reported to law enforcement. Each choice has implications for timing and classification, so document it in your methods note and link to the source you used, such as the FBI Crime Data Explorer for offense counts FBI Crime Data Explorer

Step B: obtain counts and population denominators. Download state counts from the chosen series and download the matching U.S. Census population estimates for the same year. Consistent denominators avoid spurious differences that stem from mismatched vintages U.S. Census Bureau population estimates

Step C: compute rates and apply smoothing if needed. Calculate the rate per 100,000 using the standard formula and consider a three-year moving average for small states. The NCHS and BJS materials provide guidance on when provisional and final data are appropriate for single-year versus averaged reporting NCHS provisional and final data guidance and consult homicide statistics for additional context.

Step D: prepare clear reporting language and uncertainty notes. Use a headline that names the series and year, include a methods note that lists source, population vintage, and averaging window, and add a brief sentence about uncertainty for jurisdictions with small counts.

How journalists and civic writers should cite and attribute homicide rankings

Required citation elements include the data source name, the year used, whether the numbers are deaths or incidents, and the Census denominator vintage. A concise example attribution is: “According to CDC WONDER final mortality data through 2022, adjusted by U.S. Census population estimates for 2022.” That phrasing states the series and denominator and points readers to the primary data.

When using FBI provisional figures, add the provisional label and link to the FBI release notes or data portal so readers can see the caveats. For example: “According to provisional FBI Crime Data Explorer counts for 2023; figures are provisional and subject to revision.” Cite the FBI release notes when you use those numbers FBI preliminary estimates and release notes

Include a short methods note with any published table or headline. The methods note should list the source, year, whether the data are deaths or incidents, Census denominator vintage, any averaging window, and whether figures are provisional or final. This transparency helps readers and other reporters replicate your approach.

Special considerations for small states and territories

Small-population states can show volatile year-to-year rates because each homicide affects the per-capita rate more strongly. A single event can move a small state’s rate substantially, so rely on three-year averages or confidence intervals rather than single-year rankings when including those jurisdictions.

Statistical remedies include moving averages, reporting confidence intervals, or suppressing rates when counts are too small to be reliable. The Bureau of Justice Statistics and NCHS discuss these approaches and the limits of provisional or single-year counts for small jurisdictions BJS measurement guidance

If you exclude a state or territory because of small counts or data suppression, state that explicitly in your methods note and explain the threshold used for exclusion. That prevents readers from assuming an omitted jurisdiction is automatically safer or more dangerous.

Quick method summary and recommended best practices

Pick the right series: CDC for mortality-based rankings or FBI for offense-based rankings. Use consistent U.S. Census denominators, label provisional data explicitly, and use multi-year averages for small states to reduce volatility. Link to your primary data so readers can verify your approach.

Conclusion: responsible ways to report and interpret ‘top’ safety lists

When reporting a list called “top 10 safest states in the united states” based on homicide metrics, be explicit about the metric, the data series, and the year. Single-series rankings are useful for selected comparisons but do not capture the full picture of public safety.

Where possible, include both mortality and offense-based context, cite the primary sources, and offer a clear methods note. These steps make a reported ranking transparent, reproducible, and less likely to be misread as a definitive assessment of safety.

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